Merlin is a multi-month long online forecasting tournament, where participants can make predictions on a variety of topics (for example: who will win the Physics Nobel Prize in 2025?; what percentage of the energy mix in France will come from nuclear energy in 2025?).
Prizes are given out to 1) those who have won the most points through their predictions over a set timeframe 2) the best rationales for forecasts, as well as post-mortem analyses explaining why one was wrong 3) the best market ideas that were subsequently included in the online platform.
The intention behind facilitating this tournament is to introduce students to rational thinking and adjacent knowledge, including Bayes Theorem, probabilistic thinking, updating your beliefs, exposure to cognitive biases, expected value, and more. Furthermore by focusing on mostly having forecasting markets around intellectually valuable topics, we hope that people dive deep into those specific topics and in doing their research to make the most informed bet, also learn about the exciting world of science, technology and politics.
1. Because all participants explore rationalist topics in a playful way, become better decision-makers and critical thinkers, and get insights over the functioning of prediction markets.
2. Because we're already weighing different decisions all the time (Should I cross the street at a red light?), and being able to think more rationally about decisions in our lives is extremely valuable.
3. Because
Weil alle Teilnehmenden verschiedene Möglichkeiten der Anlage in Wertpapiere kennenlernen und deren Bedeutung für die langfristige persönliche Finanzplanung erfassen.Weil alle Teilnehmenden Kompetenzen im Umgang mit Geld einüben und das Planspiel Börse einen ersten Einblick in die Finanzwelt gewährt.Weil alle Teilnehmenden Einblicke in das Thema Nachhaltigkeit erhalten und erfahren, warum es sich lohnt, auf eine nachhaltige Geldanlage zu setzen.Weil alle Teilnehmenden Unternehmen, die sie bereits aus ihrem Alltag kennen, von einer ganz neuen Seite und hoffentlich besser kennenlernen.Weil es Spaß macht, sich mit anderen im Wettbewerb zu messen!Und natürlich, weil Planspiel Börse echt cool ist! 😉
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